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Pathway #06 · Assessment Phase

Climate-Resilient
Transport Planning

Climate risk overlay on WFP's 12 highest-volume logistics corridors — flood probability, heat stress, and extreme weather modelling protecting humanitarian supply chain continuity through 2050 scenarios.

NarrioOs Intelligence
Corridor Climate Risk Command Centre
Real-time climate data fused with WFP route operations — every corridor rated for disruption probability across 4 climate risk dimensions under current and projected conditions.
NarrioOs · Climate Risk Engine · WFP Logistics Network
Corridor Risk
Flood Model
Heat Index
2030 Scenario
2050 Scenario
12
Corridors Risk-Assessed
Africa · Middle East · South Asia
4
High-Risk Corridors (2030)
Requiring re-routing strategy
−40%
Target Disruption Exposure
via alternate routing pre-planning
Nairobi
Juba ⚠
Mogadishu ⚠
Dakar
Amman
Islamabad
Bangkok
High Risk (2030)
Medium Risk
Low / Managed
Hub / Major Depot
Corridor Assessment
12 Corridor Climate Risk Assessment
Each corridor rated across flood, heat, access, and geopolitical climate stress — with modelled disruption days per year under current and 2030 conditions.
Corridor Region Annual Tonnage Current Risk 2030 Risk Disruption Days / Yr Alt Route
Nairobi → Juba East Africa 84,000t ● High ● Critical 38 days Available
Nairobi → Mogadishu East Africa 61,000t ● High ● Critical 44 days Limited
Islamabad → Kabul South Asia 52,000t ● High ● High 29 days Available
Dakar → Bamako West Africa 48,000t ● Medium ● High 21 days Available
Amman → Baghdad Middle East 44,000t ● Medium ● Medium 16 days Available
Bangkok → Yangon Southeast Asia 39,000t ● Medium ● Medium 18 days Available
Kinshasa → Goma Central Africa 36,000t ● High ● Critical 51 days Limited
Addis Ababa → Djibouti Horn of Africa 31,000t ● Low ● Medium 7 days Available
Risk Dimensions
4 Climate Risk Dimensions Modelled
Flood & Inundation Risk
1-in-20, 1-in-100, and 1-in-500-year flood probability maps overlaid on WFP route networks. Seasonal flood windows modelled with 2030 and 2050 intensification factors.
4 corridors: >30 days/yr disruption by 2030
Extreme Heat & Driver Safety
WBGT (Wet Bulb Globe Temperature) thresholds for outdoor driver safety. Hours above 32°C mapped per corridor — directly affects safe operating windows and driver productivity.
Sahel corridors: +22% heat days by 2035
Road Degradation Risk
Pavement integrity scoring for unpaved and paved road surfaces under projected precipitation changes. Identifies segments at high risk of seasonal impassability.
18% of unpaved WFP routes at high risk
Supply Chain Cascade Effects
Secondary impact modelling — when a primary corridor fails, which downstream depots, populations, and programmes are affected? NarrioOs maps the full beneficiary exposure per disruption scenario.
Up to 340k beneficiaries per disruption
Scenario Modelling
Baseline → 2030 → 2050 Climate Scenarios
Three planning horizons for WFP's logistics strategy — each scenario uses IPCC RCP 4.5 and 8.5 pathways calibrated to WFP's specific operating geographies.
Baseline · 2024
Current Disruption Profile
Avg disruption days / corridor18
High-risk corridors2 / 12
Beneficiaries at risk~180k
Annual disruption cost€4.2M
Alt-route readiness32%
2030 Scenario · RCP 4.5
Near-Term Intensification
Avg disruption days / corridor27 (+50%)
High-risk corridors4 / 12
Beneficiaries at risk~340k
Annual disruption cost€7.8M
Alt-route target80%
2050 Scenario · RCP 8.5
High-Emissions Stress Test
Avg disruption days / corridor41 (+128%)
High-risk corridors7 / 12
Beneficiaries at risk~680k
Annual disruption cost€14.2M
Mitigation potential (plan now)−60%
Implementation
Climate Resilience Roadmap — 6 Weeks + Ongoing
Weeks 1–2
Corridor Data Mapping
WFP route network digitised and georeferenced. Historical disruption data collected from country offices. Climate datasets (ECMWF, ERA5, IPCC projections) loaded into NarrioOs spatial engine.
NarrioOsECMWF12 corridors
Weeks 3–4
Risk Scoring & Alternative Route Design
Each corridor receives a composite risk score across all 4 dimensions. Top 4 high-risk corridors get alternative route proposals — at least 2 viable options per corridor with distance, time, and cost comparisons.
Risk scoringAlt routesHERE Maps
Weeks 5–6
Scenario Reporting Delivery
Full 2030 and 2050 scenario analysis delivered. Corridor risk dashboard deployed in NarrioOs. WFP logistics team briefed on top 4 priority corridors and contingency plan activation triggers.
Dashboard delivery2030/2050 reportContingency plans
Ongoing
Live Monitoring & Seasonal Updates
NarrioOs integrates real-time weather feeds. Quarterly risk score updates. Automated alerts to WFP logistics planners when a corridor risk threshold is breached — triggered 2–4 weeks ahead of planned shipments.
Real-time alertsQuarterly updatesNarrioOs watchdog
4BlueTech Platform
4BT Products Powering This Pathway
AE
4BT Assess
Corridor risk assessment module. Ingests climate projection datasets and WFP route geometries to produce corridor-level risk ratings across all 4 climate dimensions.
RM
4BT RoadMap
Long-term resilience roadmap aligned to 2030 and 2050 climate targets. Tracks progress on alternative route development, contingency plan activation, and corridor risk score improvements over time.
NarrioOs
NarrioOs Spatial Engine
Real-time climate data integration (ECMWF, ERA5, NOAA) fused with WFP operational calendars. Proactive alerts surface 2–4 weeks before a known risk window to allow pre-positioning of supplies.
Projected Impact
Climate Resilience Programme Outcomes
12
Corridors risk-scored with 2030 & 2050 projections
−40%
Climate-related disruption exposure with planning
€10M+
Avoided disruption cost by 2030 (vs unplanned exposure)
680k
Beneficiaries protected from 2050 high-risk scenario
80%
Alt-route readiness target for top 8 corridors
6 wks
Time to first full corridor risk report delivery
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